美国商务部22日公布,11月个人消费支出(PCE)平减指数年增2.6%,低于市场预期的2.8%,以及10月的2.9%升幅,这显示通膨进一步降温,核心通膨率也低于预估,且更接近2%目标,使联准会(Fed)明年开始降息的时间可能提前。
美股22日早盘上涨,10年期公债殖利率下降3个基点。
商务部22日公布,美国11月名目个人支出比10月增加0.2%,低于预估的0.3%,但高于10月时的0.1%增幅(修正后数值);经过通膨调整后的实质个人支出月增0.3%,符合预估,但高于10月修正后的0.1%增幅,部分是因为物价下跌。其中产品类实质支出增加0.1%,主因耐久性消费品支出减少,服务类支出则增加0.2%。
衡量通膨的指标、也就是PCE平减指数,整体指数比10月下降0.1%,比预估的持平更低;年升2.6%,低于预估的2.8%,及10月时的2.9%升幅。扣除食物与能源价格的核心PCE平减指数,月升0.1%,低于预估的0.2%,且10月的升幅也由0.2%下修到0.1%;与去年同期相比上升3.2%,低于预估的3.3%,也低于10月的3.4%升幅(修正数)。
至于11月个人所得增加0.4%,符合预估,且高于10月时的0.3%增幅。由于所得升幅远高于整体通膨率,代表实质所得正成长,有利于消费支出。
经济学者表示,通膨月升幅持续低于0.2%,是达成2%目标的必要条件。11月通膨进一步降温,不仅是通膨率下降,而且还出现物价下跌,加上消费支出稳健,使经济软着陆的几率更高,Fed也更可能于明年3月就开始降息。
这份PCE报告出炉前,彭博资讯公布每月对经济学者所做的最新访调结果,学者预测Fed开始降息的中位时间是2024年6月,而明年下半年将再三次降息,每次都降1码,年底时的利率为4.25%~4.50%。
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