美联储继续升息4码几率大增 推升美元 市场动荡
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在美国6月通膨率“破9”、续冲上40年新高后,市场预估联准会(Fed)本月升息1个百分点(4码)的几率超过八成,继续推升美元,美元指数升至109,欧元一度贬破平价水准,日圆短期可能跌破140日圆。美股早盘跌逾500点,国际油价跌逾3%。
芝加哥商业交易所(CMD)的FedWatch工具显示,投资人预期Fed本月26~27日决策会议升息4码几率为88.1%。若真如此,将是Fed自1990年代初开始用隔夜联邦资金利率为政策工具以来,最强的升息力道。
美元指数14日盘中续挺升1%至109,再攀抵20年高点,欧元一度贬至0.9998美元,为20年来首度跌破平价,之后回升至1.0005美元;日圆重贬1.5%至139.39日圆,再破24年低点,策略师指出,若美日维持现有政策不变,日本又不干预汇市,日圆短期将贬至140日圆价位。
美国2年期公债殖利率盘中涨至3.236%,仍高于10年期殖利率(2.984%),为预示经济衰退的殖利率曲线倒挂型态,且倒挂幅度扩大,显示衰退疑虑加剧,加重股市卖压,美股三大指数跌逾1%,道琼斯工业指数跌逾400点,布兰特油价重挫3.7%至每桶95.87美元,西德州油价也跌4.6%,报每桶91.83美元。
野村证券和花旗都已预期,Fed本月将升息4码。摩根大通首席美国经济学家费洛利认为,若Fed在7月升息4码、9月升息3码,今年内经济成长前景可能会恶化。
Fed官员也维持鹰派放话。今年有决策投票权的克里夫兰联准银行总裁梅斯特13日说,6月通膨报告显示本月应升息至少3码,但她拒绝说明是否支持更大升息幅度,亚特兰大联准银行总裁波斯提克(今年无投票权)也说,“任何政策行动都有可能”。Fed官员将在周六(16日)进入决策前缄默期。
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