网友:为何中国能促成沙伊和解,而美国却没做到?(图)

今涛拍案 0

外交界爆出了一个大消息,宿敌伊朗和沙特在北京实现了和解,双方发表联合声明,准备互相派驻大使,互相尊重对方的领土与主权完整。为什么中国能够促成沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的和解和复交,而美国作为世界政治的头号人物却未能做到这一点?这是海外网友就这一国际热点事件提出的问题,我们看看各国网友的回答。



问题:为什么中国可以在沙特和伊朗之间斡旋和解,美国不行?



中国网友Dariush Lu的回答


正确的说法是,中国做成了美国不想办成的事情。而且,正因为美国不想办,事反而才能办成。

China is a country that attracts peace, and the United States is a country that pushes peace. It is a bit like the electron-pulling base and electron-pushing base in organic chemistry. As soon as China pulls and the United States pushes, it will be natural. I would like to call it the "push and pull peace system", namely the Donor-Acceptor Peace Sustainment System (DAPSS).

中国是拉拢和平的国家,美国是推开和平的国家,有点像有机化学里的拉电子基和推电子基。中国 一拉,美国一推,水到渠成,我愿称之为“推拉和平体系”,即 Donor-Acceptor Peace Sustainment System(DAPSS)。

The United States has a strong ability to restore peace, but it refuses to do so. For example, can't the United States let Taiwan poison subside? Can't Japan stop expanding its military? Can't Europe stop supporting Ukraine? Can't we stabilize the Palestinian Israeli issue? Can't the land swept by the Arab spring stop fighting? Can't the Syrian civil war be slowed down? Why not? You look down on the world's only superpower. The United States only needs to remove its support for separatist organizations, cult organizations and extremist terrorist organizations in various countries to solve most of the above-mentioned thorny problems, and the remaining proxy war can also be completed by exerting pressure and concessions on the neighboring regional powers.

美国恢复和平的能力很强,只是他不肯做。比如,美国难道不能让台毒消停?不能让日本停止扩军?不能让欧洲停止对乌克兰的支援?不能让巴以问题趋于稳定?不能让被阿拉伯之春拂过的土地停止战乱?不能让叙利亚内战趋缓? 怎么会不能?你也太小瞧世界上唯一的超级大国了吧。上述棘手问题,美国只需撤除它对各国分裂组织、邪教组织和极端恐怖组织的支持,就能解决大半,剩下的代理人战争也可以对周边地区强国施压和让步来完成。

Iran and Saudi Arabia had established diplomatic relations before 2019. Israel's external environment is so bad. Isn't it still possible to establish diplomatic relations with Egypt under the mediation of the United States, and then establish diplomatic relations with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries? More complicated is the Dayton Agreement in South-Eastern Europe, where the Serbs, Croats and Muscovites are intertwined, which has been suppressed by the United States using an electronic simulation sand table.

伊朗和沙特在2019年之前就建立过外交关系的,以色列外部环境这么差,不还是在美国斡旋下与埃及建交,后来又与约旦和阿联酋等阿拉伯国家建立外交关系吗?更复杂的也有,东南欧的代顿协定,塞族、克族、穆组盘根错节,都被美国用电子模拟沙盘给镇住了。

The United States is to achieve its global hegemony by occupying all important strategic fulcrums, key channels and hot spots within the radiation of military bases. The United States pursues offshore balance to make war money. It needs to maintain differences in various regions and a low-intensity war state for a long time.

美国就是通过占领全球的各个重要战略支点,关键航道和热点地区在军事基地辐射之内,以实现其全球霸权。美国搞离岸平衡发的是战争财,要长期维持各地区的分歧和低烈度战争状态。

It is not that the United States cannot make world peace, but that the United States does not want world peace at all. The governance of the United States is supported by the turbulence in numerous local regions. With the gradual spillover of internal contradictions in the United States and the drag caused by the global strategic presence, the United States has evolved from an indispensable builder of the international community to the most powerful destroyer of major international agendas. Therefore, Iran and Saudi Arabia can not sign an agreement in Beijing without the United States. I believe that in the future, the push pull peace model will have new applications in the international community.

美国不是不能让世界和平而是,美国根本不希望世界和平。美利坚治世是由无数个局部地区的动荡所支撑起来的。 随着美国内部矛盾逐渐外溢,以及全球战略存在所造成的拖累,美国已经从国际社会不可或缺的建设者,变成重大国际议程中最有力的破坏者。 所以伊朗和沙特能在北京签署协定,离不开美国的倒逼。 相信今后一段时间内,推拉和平模型,还会在国际社会有新的用武之地。



海外网友亨瑞•杨的回答

The United States did not fail in the Middle East, but succeeded.

美国在中东没有失败,反而取得了成功。

The United States' foreign strategy is division.

美国的对外战略是分裂。

Split the people of other countries and split the relationship between the two countries.

分裂其他国家的人民,分裂两个国家之间的关系。

Why does it want to disrupt the Middle East?

为什么它要祸乱中东?

The unity of the people of a country will make the country stronger, and the United States does not want to see such a situation, such as China.

一个国家的人民团结会使国家变得强大,美国不希望看到这种情况,例如中国。

A unified alliance will also exert strong pressure on the United States, and the United States does not want to do so, such as the European Union.

一个统一的联盟也会对美国形成强大的压力,美国也不希望这样,例如欧盟。

Look, the United States has successfully split the powerful Yugoslavia into many small countries.

看,美国已经成功地将强大的南斯拉夫分裂成不知道有多少个小国。

Iran and Europe used to be business partners, but Trump sanctioned Iran on the false accusation that Iran violated the United Nations nuclear treaty. The United Nations confirmed that Iran did not... What is the real reason for the sanctions? Disrupt commercial relations between Europe and Iran.

伊朗和欧洲曾经是商业合作伙伴,但特朗普以伊朗违反联合国核条约的虚假指控制裁了伊朗,联合国证实伊朗没有…那么制裁的真正原因是什么?破坏欧洲和伊朗之间的商业关系。

Similarly, the United States hopes to create conflicts in the Middle East, so that no country can be strong enough to "be the enemy" of the United States.

同样,美国希望在中东制造冲突,这样就没有一个国家能够强大到与美国“为敌”。

China has a different mentality; They want peace. They want to make money and develop technology.

中国有着不同的心态;他们想要和平。他们想赚钱,发展技术。

Saudi Arabia and Iran are both China's major economic partners. Without interfering in its strategic sovereignty, China led the two countries to decide to live in peace with their neighbors, rather than war. The war hindered their progress and made them poor.

沙特阿拉伯和伊朗都是中国的主要经济伙伴。在不干涉其战略主权的情况下,中国领导两国决定与邻国和平相处,而不是战争。战争阻碍了他们的前进,战争使他们变得贫穷。

When they saw China's peaceful rise, they also wanted to board the train of China's progress. They see that ASEAN has made a lot of money through trade with its neighbors who use China's high-speed rail... In a sense, the international high-speed rail is a bridge to international peace.

当他们看到中国和平崛起时,他们也想登上中国前进的列车。他们看到东盟通过与使用中国高铁的邻国进行贸易赚了很多钱…从某种意义上说,国际高铁是通往国际和平的桥梁。

Both countries have been bullied by the United States before. They know that the United States is a troublemaker. They are not stupid. But they had no choice before. Now, with a peaceful China, they have a choice.

这两个国家以前都被美国欺负过。他们知道美国是麻烦制造者。他们并不愚蠢。但他们之前别无选择。现在,有了和平的中国,他们有了选择。

One difference between the United States and China is:

美国和中国的一个区别是:

The United States will provide funds to "help" the development of other countries. The money will be sent to an official's pocket and will never benefit the people.

美国将提供资金来“帮助”其他国家发展(翻译过来就是贿赂)。这些钱将被输送到某个官员的口袋里且永远不会让人民受益。

China helps by building infrastructure for other countries. Everyone can see and touch it. After the dam is completed, people will be able to get electricity. When the railway that helps the circulation of goods is completed, people will make money and become richer.

中国通过为其他国家建设基础设施来提供帮助。所有的人都能看到并触摸到它。大坝建成后,人们就能通电,当帮助商品流通的铁路建成后,人们将赚钱并变得更富有。

This is the difference.

这就是区别。



美国网友劳伦斯的回答


What failed? The United States and its allies have sanctioned and isolated Iran, believing that Iran is an enemy and has no diplomatic relations with them. The United States has not tried to help Iran improve its relations with anyone at all.

什么失败?美国及其盟友制裁和孤立了伊朗,认为伊朗是敌人,与他们没有外交关系。美国根本没有试图帮助伊朗改善与任何人的关系。

China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have their own motives in this regard.

中国、沙特阿拉伯和伊朗在这方面都有各自的动机。

• China hopes to maintain the stability of oil trade from Saudi Arabia. The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran will aggravate the instability of oil trade in the Middle East and bring the United States back to the Persian Gulf. China hopes to improve its status in the Gulf region and sell weapons to Iran. All this is to open up prospects for China in the Middle East.

•中国希望保持来自沙特阿拉伯石油贸易的稳定。沙特和伊朗之间的战争将加剧中东石油贸易的不稳定性,并将美国带回波斯湾。中国希望改善其在海湾地区的地位,并希望向伊朗出售武器。这一切都是为了给中国在中东开辟前景。

• Saudi Arabia hopes to improve its relations with China, because China is Saudi Arabia's number one oil importer. Saudi Arabia is worried about Iran, which looted their embassy in 2016, attacked their refinery in 2019 and is developing nuclear weapons. They are long-term enemies - a Shiite and a Sunni. Saudi Arabia is only doing this to save China's face and hope that China can balance Iran's regional situation, because the Crown Prince has alienated the United States, and Saudi Arabia is not sure that the United States will defend it as it did in 1991.

•沙特希望改善与中国的关系,因为中国是沙特的头号石油进口国。沙特阿拉伯担心伊朗,伊朗在2016年洗劫了他们的大使馆,在2019年袭击了他们的炼油厂,并正在发展核武器。他们是长期的敌人——一个什叶派,一个逊尼派。沙特阿拉伯这样做只是为了给中国面子,希望中国能在地区局势上平衡伊朗,因为王储已经疏远了美国,沙特阿拉伯根本不确定美国会像1991年那样捍卫它。

• Iran wants to dominate the Persian Gulf and hopes that China can help them to do so. Iran wants to weaken Saudi Arabia and may even take over its oil fields. In doing so, they are also giving China face. They did not care about improving relations with Saudi Arabia. Rebuilding the ambassador relationship is just a show. Pay attention to their actual actions. They will not stop arming Yemen against Saudi Arabia.

•伊朗希望主导波斯湾,并希望中国能帮助他们做到这一点。伊朗想要削弱沙特阿拉伯,甚至可能接管其油田。他们这样做也是给中国面子。他们对改善与沙特阿拉伯的关系毫不在意。重建大使关系只是一场表演。注意他们的实际行动。他们不会停止武装也门对抗沙特。

I don't expect that the re-establishment of diplomatic relations will last long. Saudi Arabia and Iran differ on too many issues. China cannot protect Saudi Arabia from attack, which has been proved by the United States. Iran needs the West to lift sanctions, and China cannot help them.

我预计这次重新建立外交关系不会持续太久。沙特阿拉伯和伊朗在太多问题上存在分歧。中国无法保护沙特阿拉伯免受攻击,美国已经证明了这一点。伊朗需要西方解除制裁,中国无法帮助他们。

Why is that?

为什么会这样?

The United States' foreign policy strategy and principles are based on the Wolfowitz Principles formulated in 1992, which are still the basis of its principles: the United States does not seek peace, prosperity or cooperation. They just need to maintain hegemony: enduring.

美国的外交政策战略和原则是基于1992年制定的沃尔福威茨原则,至今仍是其原则的基础:美国不寻求和平、繁荣或合作。他们只需要保持霸权:经久不衰。

Superpower status

超级大国地位

The doctrine declared that after the end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States was the only superpower in the world, and declared that its main goal was to maintain this position.

该学说宣布,在冷战结束苏联解体后,美国是世界上唯一的超级大国,并宣布其主要目标是保持这一地位。

Our first goal is to prevent a new adversary from reappearing. Whether in the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, the threat level of this adversary is similar to that of the former Soviet Union. This is the main consideration of the United States' regional defense strategy, which requires us to strive to prevent any hostile forces from dominating a region with resources sufficient to generate global power under comprehensive control.

我们的第一个目标是防止一个新的对手再次出现,无论是在前苏联领土上还是在其他地方,这种对手的威胁程度与前苏联相当。这是美国地区防御战略的主要考虑因素,要求我们努力防止任何敌对势力统治一个资源在综合控制下足以产生全球力量的地区。

Our fundamental goal is to prevent or defeat attacks from any source... The second goal is to strengthen and expand the defense arrangement system, unite democracy and like-minded countries, jointly defend aggression, establish cooperative habits, avoid the re-nationalization of security policies, and provide security for all at lower cost and lower risk. We tend to respond collectively to eliminate threats, or respond to threats when necessary, which is a key feature of our regional defense strategy. The third goal is to prevent the infiltration of any hostile forces in areas that are vital to our interests, thus strengthening the barriers and preventing the interests of the United States and its allies from being threatened globally again.

我们最根本的目标是阻止或击败来自任何来源的攻击。。。第二个目标是加强和扩展防御安排体系,将民主和志同道合的国家团结在一起,共同防御侵略,建立合作习惯,避免安全政策的重新国有化,并以更低的成本和更低的风险为所有人提供安全。我们倾向于集体应对,以排除威胁,或者在必要时应对威胁,这是我们地区防御战略的一个关键特征。第三个目标是阻止任何敌对势力对我们利益至关重要的地区的渗透,从而加强壁垒,防止美国及其盟友的利益再次受到全球威胁。

The primacy of the United States

美国的首要地位

The doctrine established the leading role of the United States in the new world order.

该学说确立了美国在新的世界秩序中的领导作用。

The United States must show the necessary leadership to establish and protect a new order that is expected to convince potential competitors that they do not need to aspire to play a greater role or take a more radical stance to protect their legitimate interests. In the non-defense field, we must fully consider the interests of advanced industrial countries and prevent them from challenging our leadership or attempting to overthrow the established political and economic order. We must maintain a mechanism to prevent potential competitors from even eager to play a larger regional or global role.

美国必须表现出必要的领导力,以建立和保护一个新秩序,该秩序有望说服潜在的竞争对手,他们不需要渴望发挥更大的作用,也不需要采取更激进的姿态来保护自己的合法利益。在非国防领域,我们必须充分考虑先进工业国家的利益,阻止他们挑战我们的领导地位或试图推翻既定的政治和经济秩序。我们必须保持阻止潜在竞争对手甚至渴望发挥更大的区域或全球作用的机制。



中国学者Paul Denlinger的回答

On the contrary, China has only made a small contribution, and the main credit should be attributed to the United States. If it is not for the good cooperation of the United States, China would not be able to mediate the difficult actions of Shiite Persians and Sunni Arabs. China is just doing a good job.

要我说恰恰相反,中国只是做了一点微小的贡献,主要功劳还得归美国,要不是美国配合的好,调停什叶派波斯人和逊尼派阿拉伯人这种高难度动作中国是真的做不来。中国不过做个顺水人情而已。

The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in China is a typical Spanish ulcer event. Napoleon had to attack Spain in an obsessive-compulsive manner when the Kingdom of Spain had already expressed its submission. As a result, the French army fell into the quagmire of security war in Spain, and the war was always not smooth, so that Napoleon sighed to his generals "why things in Spain are always so bad", Spain has become an incurable wound on the map of Napoleon's empire. This kind of situation that forces the object who has surrendered and obeyed to death, and forces the other party to resist to the end, is called Spanish ulcer.

沙特伊朗在中国复交,是一起典型的西班牙溃疡事件 ,当年拿破仑在西班牙王国已经表示臣服顺从的情况下,非要强迫症式的攻打西班牙,结果法军在西班牙陷入治安战的泥潭中,战事始终不顺,以至于拿破仑对他的将军们叹息“西班牙的事情为什么总是如此糟糕”,西班牙成了拿破仑帝国版图上一道永不愈合的伤口。这种把已经投降顺从的对象往死里逼,逼的对方只能反抗到底的情况,就叫西班牙溃疡。

Iran and Saudi Arabia have in fact shown their compliance before. Iran has not even investigated the Suleymani incident. Saudi Arabia is even a traditional ally of the United States. Saudi Arabia's compliance with the United States federal government is significantly higher than that of the United States' own states. However, the United States still refuses to give up. The Kashuji incident once, the President and the Crown Prince meet once, and Qatar resumed diplomatic relations once, Biden and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads three times since he took office two years ago, to the point of quarrelling in front of a group of reporters, and the Democratic Party is even more because of the good relationship between the Republican Party and Saudi Arabia, and they are holding Saudi Arabia back and forth every day.

伊朗,沙特之前都已经事实上表示顺从了,伊朗连苏莱曼尼事件都没怎么追究,沙特甚至是美国的传统盟友,沙特对美国联邦政府的顺从程度显著高于美国自己的州对联邦政府的顺从程度,尽管如此,美国还是不依不饶,卡舒吉事件一次,总统和王储会面一次,卡塔尔复交一次,拜登上台两年时间就和沙特就三次大闹不和,闹到当着一堆记者的面吵架的地步,民主党内部更是因为共和党和沙特关系较好,天天拿着沙特来回折腾。

In addition, the statement "why the United States can't do it" is problematic, because the premise of the discussion is to do it, but the United States has no intention to do it at all, let alone the possibility of reconciliation between Shiite Persians and Sunni Arabs. The key is that if Saudi Arabia reconciles with Iran, how can the United States maintain its presence in the Middle East? Can't it all depend on Israel?

另外“为何美国办不成”这个说法是有问题的,因为讨论办得成办不成的前提是想要去办,可美国 压根就没打算去办这件事,且不说要什叶派波斯人和逊尼派阿拉伯人和解有没有现实可能,关键是沙特要是和伊朗和解了,那美国还怎么维持自己在中东的存在?总不能全靠以色列吧?

Saudi Arabia and Iran have not had a good time in recent years. Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen has not been smooth, the oil industry is inexhaustible, the Shiite communities in the oil-producing areas have been restless, and there are also fights within the royal family. Iran is similar. The headband incident in the past period is still vivid. The internal contradictions between the reformists and conservatives are surging, and the Iranian nuclear issue has been brought back to its original shape. Under the common internal and external difficulties, the two countries choose to ease relations and warm up together, which is a very realistic choice.

沙特和伊朗两国这些年都不太好过,沙特在也门的战事一直不顺,石油产业一言难尽,产油区的什 叶派社区一直不安分,王室内部也有争斗。伊朗也差不多,前段时间的头巾事件还历历在目,改 革派和保守派的内部矛盾暗流涌动,伊核问题被打回原形,在这种共同的内外交困 之下,两国选择缓和关系,抱团取暖就是很现实的选择。

This time, China is not so good at mediation skills, knows how to take advantage of the situation, looks at the opportunity, cuts into the weakness of the United States in the Middle East, and then makes a difference, which is great. This incident is the first time that China has practiced offensive realism in its foreign work, and has achieved rich results, effectively raising the cost of American rule, shaking the regional order under the rule of the United States, and improving the external situation. The domestic evaluation of this event is also very high, and the benefits and moral benefits are both abundant, eloquently proving the correctness of Milsheimer's theory.

中国这次与其说是斡旋技巧高超,懂得顺势而为,瞅准时机,切入美国在中东地区的弱点,然后有所作为,这就很了不起。这次事件是中国首次在对外工作中实践了进攻性现实主义,并且取得了丰厚的成果,有效提高了美国的统治成本,动摇了美国治下的区域秩序,改善了外部态势,国内对此也评价极高,利益和道义双丰收,雄辩的证明了米尔斯海默的理论的正确性。 阅读原文

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