韩国的人均GDP有可能在未来10-20年内超过日本吗?

Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan''s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years? If it’s not possible, under which conditions could South Korea overtake the Japanese economy in GDP per capita?

韩国的人均GDP有可能在未来10-20年内超过日本吗?如果不可能，在什么情况下韩国的人均GDP能超过日本?

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锚点Glenn Luk, B.S. Economics & Computer Science, University of Pennsylvania

upxed Mar 10, 2016

Originally Answered: Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan''s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years?

By some measures, South Korea has already more or less caught up to Japan:

Per capita GDP (PPP): Japan is around $37k, South Korea is around $35k

Per capita GDP (nominal): Japan is listed between $33-36k, South Korea is around $28k

Human Development Index: South Korea (0.898) is slightly ahead of Japan (0.891)

Bloomberg Innovation Index: South Korea placed #1 while Japan placed #5 in 2015

South Korea and Japan have very similar economies and compete head-to-head in a number of prominent sectors like consumer electronics and automobiles. The extent to which you see companies like Samsung overtaking Sony or Hyundai slowly catching up to Toyota is a fairly accurate reflection of what is going on in the broader economies.

In terms of aggregate size, South Korea has less than half the population of Japan, so catching up in terms of gross GDP will be very difficult, barring a scenario where the two Koreas merge, successfully integrate and have a mini-baby boom sometime in the middle of this century. In such a scenario, maybe they are fully caught up by something like 2080.

Glenn Luk, 宾夕法尼亚大学经济学与计算机科学学士

某种程度上，韩国已经或多或少赶上了日本：

人均GDP（平价购买力）：日本是37000美元左右，韩国是35000美元左右。

人均GDP（名义）：日本在33000-36000美元之间，韩国在28000美元左右。

人类发展指数：韩国（0.898）略微高于日本（0.891）。

彭博创新指数：韩国排在第一名，而日本在第五名。

韩国和日本的经济非常相似，在消费电子产品和汽车等许多重要领域都存在着激烈的竞争。三星超过索尼或现代等公司慢慢赶上丰田的程度，相当准确地反映了更广泛经济体的情况。

就总体规模而言，韩国的人口还不到日本的一半，因此要想在GDP方面赶上日本将非常困难，除非两韩合并、成功整合，并在本世纪中叶出现小规模的生育高峰。这种情况下，兴许他们能在2080年全面赶上日本。

锚点Bill Chen, Budding economist

Answered 16h ago

No.

There is no north Japan and south Japan.

But the ROK or Republic of Korea is also South Korea.

South Korea''s capital markets alway trade at a discount because there is still no peace treaty. Despite the end of hostilities in 1953, we are only at the declaration of Peace stage.

Seoul, the capital and epicenter of the Korean economy, is close to the interkorean border. Thousands of artillery pieces and missiles are aimed squarely at the city. This is why both koreas have outsized armies and spend heavily on defense, despite the presence of us forces on both South Korea and Japan.

Bill Chen, 经济学新手

没可能。

没有所谓的北日本和南日本。

南韩的资本市场总是折价交易，因为仍然没有和平条约。尽管1953年敌对状态已经结束，但我们仍处于和平宣言阶段。

首尔是韩国的首都和经济中心，靠近朝韩边境。数以千计的大炮和导弹直接对准了这座城市。这就是为什么尽管美国在韩国和日本都有驻军，但朝韩两国依然都拥有庞大的军队，并在国防上投入重金的原因。

Byeonguk Yook, Korean American

Answered Feb 5, 2016

Originally Answered: Is it possible for South Korea to overtake Japan''s economy in GDP per capita in the next 10-20 years?

Yes. However Koreans should begin taking a different approach. The country should find something that it does well that is uniquely their stuff that everybody will need. Japan has found stuff that it does really well but is difficult to outsource. Instead obsessing about "beating" Japan, fix up the country better. Only in that way can Korea "beat" any country. Frankly the sooner new approach and thinking is adopted the better it will be.

They can''t be doing the same thing or try to follow the same path. Japan has been doing the same thing for a lot longer so they''ve a more developed infrastructure in R&D than Korea.

Byeonguk Yook, 美籍韩国人

这是有可能的。但韩国人需要采用与日本不同的办法。

这个国家应该找到它擅长的东西，那就是每个人都需要的独一无二的东西。日本已经发现了一些自己做得很好的东西，很难外包出去的那种。与其沉迷于“打败”日本，不如更好地发展这个国家。

只有这样，韩国才能“打败”任何国家。坦率地说，越早采用新方法和新思路越好。

他们不能做同样的事情，或者试图走同样的路。日本做同样的事情已经很久了，所以他们的研发基础设施比韩国更发达。 阅读原文