川普似乎已笃定赢得15日的爱荷华州初选,但据路透报导,胜选幅度很重要,关系到他是否能在其他州继续击败对手,一路赢到获得共和党提名。
接下来23日新罕布夏州的初选,民调显示前驻联合国大使海理的支持度紧追其后;落后的佛州州长德桑提斯则只能期望在爱荷华有黑马表现,才能继续往前走。
综合各家民调,政治评论网站FiveThirtyEight指出,川普8日在爱荷华的支持度达52%,超过海理和德桑提斯至少30个百分点。
川普团队刻意指出上次爱州初选出现最大幅度差距是1988年参议员杜尔(Bob
Dole),得票率超过对手12.8个百分点,以降低外界对川普赢得压倒性胜利的期望。
路透采访的四名政治分析家都说,川普确实需要如民调所显示大赢对手30个百分点,才可能挫伤海理的民调锐气。
共和党策士海伊(Doug
Heye)指出,川普若未赢15到20个百分点,“王者”气势就会受挫,海理或德桑提斯可能趁机崛起,重挫川普“一路赢到底”的威望。“他赢不了那么多的话,说他风凉话的人就会不吝提出他的弱点。”
川普竞选总干事拉席维塔(Chris
LaCivita)很有信心,中西部天气虽冷,川普铁票区选民的热度一定不会让人失望,但他不敢保证会赢多少:“赢就是赢,反正没人能赢超过12.8个百分点。”
投票率是一大变数。川普自己也怕选民看到民调认为他反正赢定了,就躲在家里不出来投票,何况爱荷华正遭受大风雪袭击。
对川普而言,海理得票万一冲高,也是一大风险。分析家说,如果她在爱荷华得到第二高票,就会稳住党内第二名地位,届时新罕布夏选民可能会再助她一臂之力,进而形成男女和世代对决的态势。
CNN与新罕布夏大学合作民调显示,川普在该州只赢海理7个百分点;今日美国报、波士顿环球报和萨佛克大学合作民调则肯定川普享有20个百分点优势。
维吉尼亚大学选举分析家康迪克IKyle Kondik)说,即使海理在新罕布夏打败川普,川普仍是赢得共和党提名的最被看好人选。
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