美国汽油价格下跌,不仅为通膨退烧带来希望,也显然对拜登总统明年的选情有利。目前美国汽油价格回落至每加仑3美元,比2022年夏季时的每加仑逾5美元大幅下跌,令喜爱开大车的美国驾驶人大大松了口气。
许多美国民众判断经济是否健康,以及现任总统表现好坏,往往是以汽油价格为基准。尽管汽油占消费者物价指数(CPI)的权重仅3%,但经济学者相信汽油与食品一样,大幅影响民众的通膨预期。
花旗经济学者霍斯哈说,“通膨预期与汽油价格之间的关联性,虽然已不如以往,但仍非常重要,因为民众经常要面对油价。尽管其他项目的价格也影响通膨预期,但汽油与食品是民众最常感受到的价格”。
之前汽油价格飙涨时,川普与共和党人士经常将此归咎于拜登的气候相关主张。华府清晰观点能源顾问公司指出,美国有照驾驶人平均一年消费约600加仑汽油,且近80%的新车都是休旅车或卡车;现任总统若要迫使大量民众改开小车,根本不可能连任。
尽管经济数据显示美国软着陆的几率升高,但民众的信心变化仍相当缓慢。
据英国金融时报与密歇根大学罗斯学院11月的民调显示,只有14%的受访者认为拜登主政下日子比以前好过。不过白宫已看到希望,因为12月最新民调指出,只有22%受访者将通膨归咎于油、气价格上涨。其他民调也显示,选民的通膨预期已开始下降。
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