联准会第三度暂停升息激励美股大涨,道琼指数创下历史新高。(美联社)
美国联准会(FED)13日公布联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议结果,确定基准利率区间暂维持5.25%至5.5%不变,符合市场预期。使得美国股市大为激励,那斯达克大涨200.57点、而道琼工业指数大涨512.3点,收盘时创下历史新高,来到37090.24点。
美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)报导,这是Fed自7月将利率升至 22 年高点以来,连续第三度按兵不动。Fed
最新声明指出,近期指标显示经济活动的成长步调已较第三季放缓,今年稍早以来,就业成长温和,但仍保持强劲,失业率也维持在较低水平。过去一年通膨有所缓解,但仍处在高档。
另外,最新点阵图显示,超过一半以上的FOMC成员认为,预估明年将至少降息3次,每次1码,而非市场定价的4次,但比官员们先前暗示的还要更激进。而进入2025年后将再降息4次,即整整一个百分点,预估2026年还会降息3次,使联邦基金利率来到2%至2.25%区间,接近长期前景。
经济预测方面,Fed 将今年的实质国内生产毛额(GDP)成长率预估值,从 9 月时的2.1%上调至2.6%,失业率持平在
.8%,核心通膨率从3.7% 降至3.2%。
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