美企获利反弹 美股的利多终于来了!
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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美国股市多头在经历2023年最糟的一个月(9月)之后,至少还有一项对后市乐观的理由,就是第4季企业盈余将大幅反弹。彭博资讯的数据显示,标普500大企业本季预估净利将比去年同期激增7.6%,一扫连续四季持续萎缩的阴霾。
美国第3季财报热季将从下周开锣,彭博行业研究(BI)预估,500大企业净利微减0.3%,但比第2季时的减少5.7%大幅改善。面对联准会(Fed)激进升息的压力,企业盈余好转将是股市投资人的救生圈。
其中,电讯与公用事业第4季获利预估至少将比去年同期成长45%,带动第4季企业获利复苏。芯片制造业及媒体与娱乐业预估分别成长28%及66%,但能源业预估将萎缩24%。如果扣除能源业,标普500大获利成长将达11%。
获利预估乐观,显示企业界两年来奋力降低成本以捍卫获利率之后,现在终于享受到通膨下降的好处。
BI全球股市策略长亚当斯表示,“高通膨一直压缩非能源企业的获利率;现在通膨减缓,加上去年企业裁员的滞后效应,使企业获利率提升”。
不过股市投资人与专家仍有理由审慎以对,包括利率可能再调升,衰退警讯出现,罢工延长,能源价格上涨,消费者超额储蓄将尽,及学贷恢复还款等利空。
再者,美国大企业获利回升的利多并不会渗透到小型股。法国兴业银行美股策略长卡布拉预估,小型股雇用近半数的劳工,且对利率较为敏感,工资及利率上升都侵蚀获利,因此预估盈余无法扩张,或延后好转。
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