华尔街最准分析师示警:美股将发生天翻地覆变化
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随著通膨下降,升息脚步放缓,美股出现反弹,不过,拥有华尔街最准分析师称号的美国银行分析师Michael
Hartnett提出警告指出,通膨反弹和即将到来的经济衰退,将使美股发生天翻地覆的变化。
Hartnett被称为华尔街2022年最准分析师,他曾精准地预测了美股上半年的大跌,也曾在7月预测到美股强劲的反弹。
外媒报道,美银在1份报告中承认,在过去3个月里,年化通膨率已降至0%左右,不过,今年通膨率将再次推升。
美银表示,推高通膨因素,除了劳动力市场仍持续紧张外,另1个因素是大宗商品价格再次飙升,因中国经济重新开放将引发一波石油需求,再加上俄罗斯和乌克兰之间持续衝突导致的供应问题,将给油价带来新的压力。
此外,经济衰退即将到来,这可能是1个大问题。这是因为失业率的上升,将伴随著惨淡的2%个人储蓄率,15%的信用卡债务激增,以及创纪录的19%的信用卡平均利率。
由于通膨资産对通缩资産的超趋势仍处于起步阶段,换句话说,投资者应该持有大宗商品和非美股等新的领先资産。Hartnett警告称,自大衰退以来主导市场的大型科技股交易将在未来几年表现不佳,投资者应持有小型股而非大型股,并重视价值股而非成长股。
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