Fed明年降息预期大减 或全年维持利率在峰值水准
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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依据彭博资讯访调经济学家的看法,调查显示,联准会(Fed)可能在2023年全年都把基准利率维持在峰值水准,浇熄市场认为Fed明年下半年将降息的预期,而Fed此举很有可能导致美国经济陷入衰退。
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)定美东时间14日下午2时(台北时间15日凌晨3时)公布利率决策和展望,在此之前,彭博资讯访调经济学家的看法,调查显示,经济学家普遍预测,继连四次升息3码后,Fed下周可望升息2码,再于接下来两次会议各升1码。
经济学家预估,FOMC对2023年基准利率的预估中值为4.9%,反映4.75%~5%的基准利率区间,高于9月预估的4.6%。这将使投资人受到鹰派震撼,目前市场人士预估Fed明年下半年将降息2码,尽管他们对终端利率的预期也是约4.9%。这份调查也显示,到2024年6月左右,Fed可能把利率调降至4%,并在该年年底前降至3.5%。
Fed主席鲍尔已表示,他愿意让美国经济承担一些苦痛,以压低通膨。
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