中期选举:国会“变天”是必然?两大因素左右选情
文章来源: 香港01 于
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撰文:李秀坤
美国中期选举在11月8日举行,总统拜登(Joe Biden)领导的民主党硬撼“死对头”、上届总统特朗普(Donald
Trump),前者力争保住参、众两院控制权,后者则有意令拜登政府变成“跛脚鸭”,并为特朗普东山再起铺路。不过纵观历史上,中期选举结果通常对执政党不利,这意味拜登同样“劫数难逃”吗?
今届选举的情况与以往多届相近,美国面对的问题都是相若:经济、通胀、治安问题接踵而来,失望的民众于是将选票投给白宫外的政党。换言之,共和党或是“机会来了”。
当然这个说法是否成真并非必然,特朗普或是左右结果的其中一个因素。不少关键州份的选民一直认为,他们确是对拜登不济的执政深感不满,但同时又对获特朗普支持的共和党候选人觉得失望,甚至视后者是没资格、极端和威胁民主的人,变相为民主党制造保住议席的条件。
另一方面,年轻选民亦是关键,一般而言,年轻选民在中期选举的投票意慾较年长一辈为低,而2018年的中期选举有大批年轻选票则是异数。有大型民意调查研究年轻选民在这两次选举的气氛,显示今届提早投票的人数不多。
如果最终这批选民的投票率仍是低下,民主党内部势讨论党内是否在应对犯罪及移民两大问题上採取更保守的姿态,打破共和党在这些问题上的垄断地位,为2024年总统选举制定吸票策略。
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