全球五大利空 彷若回到2007年的焦虑…
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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在高通膨、各国央行积极升息、强势美元、欧洲能源危机、英国经济政策不确定性等等多重利空的衝击下,投资人对世界经济的焦虑彷若回到2007年,如今投资人将全球股市的第4季表现,寄望于企业获利的韧性。
投资人焦虑感也反映在上季的股市表现,MSCI
AC世界指数下挫7%,为2008年金融海啸以来首度连三季下跌。分析师也已大幅下调对企业获利的预期,随著福特汽车等美欧企业陆续发布获利预警,对国际市场高度曝险的美国企业正面临美元强升的风险,22V研究公司预估,美元强生将使仰赖国际市场的美国大企业全年营收蒸发6亿美元。
不过,急于忘记第3季低迷行情的投资人,仍寄望于第4季企业财报季能带来一些甘霖,以带动现处于多年谷底的股市反弹。
Horizon投资公司的资深投资组合经理人萨巴说,由于目前市场对企业获利的预期已降温,加上股价下跌后让价位趋于合理,第4季可能给投资人一个弥补部分损失的机会。
但问题在于,两周后开跑的财报季业绩,是否足以安抚投资人信心。高盛和贝莱德策略师都警告,分析师的获利预估依然太高,明年的获利预估将遭大幅下修。彭博分析师预测标普500指数,第3季获利将成长2.9%,主要靠能源类股拉抬。
美股投资人在经历惨澹的9月后,也期望10月能上演“熊市杀手”行情,因为美股在10月的报酬率强劲,特别是在期中选举年。分析师指出,二战后的12次美股熊市都是在10月结束。
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