美股终结连黑,各位投资人千万别高兴太早了
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美股上周终结了“连黑”惨况,虽还不足以叫好,但至少令投资人喘一口气,在市场认为通膨已攀峰之际,本周有望续扬。但分析师提醒,投资人不宜过度乐观,后市风险仍高,因为目前市场情势仍不足以让通膨率回到2%目标,若股市继续大涨,反而可能让美国联准会(Fed)更鹰。
美国联准会(Fed)上周公布的5月会议纪录显示,官员仍将于6、7月各升息2码,但暗示之后的升幅可能缩小,再加上美国4月个人消费支出(PCE)核心平减指数显示,通膨可能已触顶,提供了让投资人缓缓气的空间,美股三大指数上周都劲扬逾6%。
分析师认为,美股本周可望延续上周的上涨动能,但涨势依旧脆弱。投资人将紧盯3日公布的美国5月就业报告,预料非农就业人口增数将趋缓至32.5万人,失业率预估将降至3.5%,平均时薪月增0.4%,反映劳动市场依然紧俏、通膨压力仍高,不太可能让Fed改变政策路线。
德意志银行专家鲁斯金认为,投资人须研判现为2.7%的美国10年期公债殖利率、及标普500指数的水准,是否足以使通膨率回到2%目标,若无法,Fed仍须将利率升到目前市场预期的水准之上,导致金融情势进一步吃紧,“我个人的看法是无法”。
巴隆周刊也指出,若Fed有意借由让金融情势趋紧、从而压低通膨,那么股市和信用市场大涨,反而会让Fed采取更鹰的行动。
分析师指出,目前最好的操作策略,是少碰之前飙涨的投资性成长股,因为股价仍然太贵,也应避开一些没有赚钱且债台高筑的公司,
聚焦于一些盈余稳健、自由现金流良好、以往也能安度景气循环波动的公司。
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