美房市年喷20% 5月恐暴涨21% 趋缓时间点在....
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美国房市自2020年中至今房价一路喷高,年增率15%至20%,但随着2021年下半抵押贷款利率结束探底并持续回升后,专家预期明年开始将会看到房价飞涨的幅度渐渐趋缓,除了明年增幅预期下修外,专家也认为第四季增长将会低于5%。
综合外电报导,“LendingTree”资深经济分析师切诺(Jacob
Channel)表示,短期内不要预期房价涨幅会出现减缓,由于5月传统来说是房市旺月之一,今年5月更有机会出现现有房屋存量加快下降的问题,进而将房价推升到更高。
“美国房贷金融”(FAM)执行长黎区(Steve
Reich)指出,目前购屋需求仍旺,尤其大量千禧世代首购族投入房市,所以他认为5月可能会看到房价飞跃的情况。
至于美国5月的房价究竟会大涨到什么程度,根据Zillow分析师巴巧德(Nicole
Bachaud)估计,年增幅可能会达到21.2%,而持续的供需落差扩大是房价攀升的关键。
从长期来看,由于抵押贷款利率也持续走高,加上其他因素,房地产业界的几大操手都渐渐抽手,Zillow预期2023年2月的房价增长预期将会从今年2月预估的16.5%,下调至14.9%。与此同时,房利美(Fannie
Mae)经济和策略研究小组估计,房价增长在明年第四季只会剩下3.2%的涨幅。
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