今涛拍案 2 Months 0
China is a country that attracts peace, and the United States is a country that pushes peace. It is a bit like the electron-pulling base and electron-pushing base in organic chemistry. As soon as China pulls and the United States pushes, it will be natural. I would like to call it the "push and pull peace system", namely the Donor-Acceptor Peace Sustainment System (DAPSS).
中国是拉拢和平的国家，美国是推开和平的国家，有点像有机化学里的拉电子基和推电子基。中国 一拉，美国一推，水到渠成，我愿称之为“推拉和平体系”，即 Donor-Acceptor Peace Sustainment System（DAPSS）。
The United States has a strong ability to restore peace, but it refuses to do so. For example, can't the United States let Taiwan poison subside? Can't Japan stop expanding its military? Can't Europe stop supporting Ukraine? Can't we stabilize the Palestinian Israeli issue? Can't the land swept by the Arab spring stop fighting? Can't the Syrian civil war be slowed down? Why not? You look down on the world's only superpower. The United States only needs to remove its support for separatist organizations, cult organizations and extremist terrorist organizations in various countries to solve most of the above-mentioned thorny problems, and the remaining proxy war can also be completed by exerting pressure and concessions on the neighboring regional powers.
Iran and Saudi Arabia had established diplomatic relations before 2019. Israel's external environment is so bad. Isn't it still possible to establish diplomatic relations with Egypt under the mediation of the United States, and then establish diplomatic relations with Jordan and the United Arab Emirates and other Arab countries? More complicated is the Dayton Agreement in South-Eastern Europe, where the Serbs, Croats and Muscovites are intertwined, which has been suppressed by the United States using an electronic simulation sand table.
The United States is to achieve its global hegemony by occupying all important strategic fulcrums, key channels and hot spots within the radiation of military bases. The United States pursues offshore balance to make war money. It needs to maintain differences in various regions and a low-intensity war state for a long time.
It is not that the United States cannot make world peace, but that the United States does not want world peace at all. The governance of the United States is supported by the turbulence in numerous local regions. With the gradual spillover of internal contradictions in the United States and the drag caused by the global strategic presence, the United States has evolved from an indispensable builder of the international community to the most powerful destroyer of major international agendas. Therefore, Iran and Saudi Arabia can not sign an agreement in Beijing without the United States. I believe that in the future, the push pull peace model will have new applications in the international community.
美国不是不能让世界和平而是，美国根本不希望世界和平。美利坚治世是由无数个局部地区的动荡所支撑起来的。 随着美国内部矛盾逐渐外溢，以及全球战略存在所造成的拖累，美国已经从国际社会不可或缺的建设者，变成重大国际议程中最有力的破坏者。 所以伊朗和沙特能在北京签署协定，离不开美国的倒逼。 相信今后一段时间内，推拉和平模型，还会在国际社会有新的用武之地。
The United States did not fail in the Middle East, but succeeded.
The United States' foreign strategy is division.
Split the people of other countries and split the relationship between the two countries.
Why does it want to disrupt the Middle East?
The unity of the people of a country will make the country stronger, and the United States does not want to see such a situation, such as China.
A unified alliance will also exert strong pressure on the United States, and the United States does not want to do so, such as the European Union.
Look, the United States has successfully split the powerful Yugoslavia into many small countries.
Iran and Europe used to be business partners, but Trump sanctioned Iran on the false accusation that Iran violated the United Nations nuclear treaty. The United Nations confirmed that Iran did not... What is the real reason for the sanctions? Disrupt commercial relations between Europe and Iran.
Similarly, the United States hopes to create conflicts in the Middle East, so that no country can be strong enough to "be the enemy" of the United States.
China has a different mentality; They want peace. They want to make money and develop technology.
Saudi Arabia and Iran are both China's major economic partners. Without interfering in its strategic sovereignty, China led the two countries to decide to live in peace with their neighbors, rather than war. The war hindered their progress and made them poor.
When they saw China's peaceful rise, they also wanted to board the train of China's progress. They see that ASEAN has made a lot of money through trade with its neighbors who use China's high-speed rail... In a sense, the international high-speed rail is a bridge to international peace.
Both countries have been bullied by the United States before. They know that the United States is a troublemaker. They are not stupid. But they had no choice before. Now, with a peaceful China, they have a choice.
One difference between the United States and China is:
The United States will provide funds to "help" the development of other countries. The money will be sent to an official's pocket and will never benefit the people.
China helps by building infrastructure for other countries. Everyone can see and touch it. After the dam is completed, people will be able to get electricity. When the railway that helps the circulation of goods is completed, people will make money and become richer.
This is the difference.
What failed? The United States and its allies have sanctioned and isolated Iran, believing that Iran is an enemy and has no diplomatic relations with them. The United States has not tried to help Iran improve its relations with anyone at all.
China, Saudi Arabia and Iran have their own motives in this regard.
• China hopes to maintain the stability of oil trade from Saudi Arabia. The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran will aggravate the instability of oil trade in the Middle East and bring the United States back to the Persian Gulf. China hopes to improve its status in the Gulf region and sell weapons to Iran. All this is to open up prospects for China in the Middle East.
• Saudi Arabia hopes to improve its relations with China, because China is Saudi Arabia's number one oil importer. Saudi Arabia is worried about Iran, which looted their embassy in 2016, attacked their refinery in 2019 and is developing nuclear weapons. They are long-term enemies - a Shiite and a Sunni. Saudi Arabia is only doing this to save China's face and hope that China can balance Iran's regional situation, because the Crown Prince has alienated the United States, and Saudi Arabia is not sure that the United States will defend it as it did in 1991.
• Iran wants to dominate the Persian Gulf and hopes that China can help them to do so. Iran wants to weaken Saudi Arabia and may even take over its oil fields. In doing so, they are also giving China face. They did not care about improving relations with Saudi Arabia. Rebuilding the ambassador relationship is just a show. Pay attention to their actual actions. They will not stop arming Yemen against Saudi Arabia.
I don't expect that the re-establishment of diplomatic relations will last long. Saudi Arabia and Iran differ on too many issues. China cannot protect Saudi Arabia from attack, which has been proved by the United States. Iran needs the West to lift sanctions, and China cannot help them.
Why is that?
The United States' foreign policy strategy and principles are based on the Wolfowitz Principles formulated in 1992, which are still the basis of its principles: the United States does not seek peace, prosperity or cooperation. They just need to maintain hegemony: enduring.
The doctrine declared that after the end of the cold war and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States was the only superpower in the world, and declared that its main goal was to maintain this position.
Our first goal is to prevent a new adversary from reappearing. Whether in the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, the threat level of this adversary is similar to that of the former Soviet Union. This is the main consideration of the United States' regional defense strategy, which requires us to strive to prevent any hostile forces from dominating a region with resources sufficient to generate global power under comprehensive control.
Our fundamental goal is to prevent or defeat attacks from any source... The second goal is to strengthen and expand the defense arrangement system, unite democracy and like-minded countries, jointly defend aggression, establish cooperative habits, avoid the re-nationalization of security policies, and provide security for all at lower cost and lower risk. We tend to respond collectively to eliminate threats, or respond to threats when necessary, which is a key feature of our regional defense strategy. The third goal is to prevent the infiltration of any hostile forces in areas that are vital to our interests, thus strengthening the barriers and preventing the interests of the United States and its allies from being threatened globally again.
The primacy of the United States
The doctrine established the leading role of the United States in the new world order.
The United States must show the necessary leadership to establish and protect a new order that is expected to convince potential competitors that they do not need to aspire to play a greater role or take a more radical stance to protect their legitimate interests. In the non-defense field, we must fully consider the interests of advanced industrial countries and prevent them from challenging our leadership or attempting to overthrow the established political and economic order. We must maintain a mechanism to prevent potential competitors from even eager to play a larger regional or global role.
On the contrary, China has only made a small contribution, and the main credit should be attributed to the United States. If it is not for the good cooperation of the United States, China would not be able to mediate the difficult actions of Shiite Persians and Sunni Arabs. China is just doing a good job.
The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in China is a typical Spanish ulcer event. Napoleon had to attack Spain in an obsessive-compulsive manner when the Kingdom of Spain had already expressed its submission. As a result, the French army fell into the quagmire of security war in Spain, and the war was always not smooth, so that Napoleon sighed to his generals "why things in Spain are always so bad", Spain has become an incurable wound on the map of Napoleon's empire. This kind of situation that forces the object who has surrendered and obeyed to death, and forces the other party to resist to the end, is called Spanish ulcer.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have in fact shown their compliance before. Iran has not even investigated the Suleymani incident. Saudi Arabia is even a traditional ally of the United States. Saudi Arabia's compliance with the United States federal government is significantly higher than that of the United States' own states. However, the United States still refuses to give up. The Kashuji incident once, the President and the Crown Prince meet once, and Qatar resumed diplomatic relations once, Biden and Saudi Arabia have been at loggerheads three times since he took office two years ago, to the point of quarrelling in front of a group of reporters, and the Democratic Party is even more because of the good relationship between the Republican Party and Saudi Arabia, and they are holding Saudi Arabia back and forth every day.
In addition, the statement "why the United States can't do it" is problematic, because the premise of the discussion is to do it, but the United States has no intention to do it at all, let alone the possibility of reconciliation between Shiite Persians and Sunni Arabs. The key is that if Saudi Arabia reconciles with Iran, how can the United States maintain its presence in the Middle East? Can't it all depend on Israel?
Saudi Arabia and Iran have not had a good time in recent years. Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen has not been smooth, the oil industry is inexhaustible, the Shiite communities in the oil-producing areas have been restless, and there are also fights within the royal family. Iran is similar. The headband incident in the past period is still vivid. The internal contradictions between the reformists and conservatives are surging, and the Iranian nuclear issue has been brought back to its original shape. Under the common internal and external difficulties, the two countries choose to ease relations and warm up together, which is a very realistic choice.
沙特和伊朗两国这些年都不太好过，沙特在也门的战事一直不顺，石油产业一言难尽，产油区的什 叶派社区一直不安分，王室内部也有争斗。伊朗也差不多，前段时间的头巾事件还历历在目，改 革派和保守派的内部矛盾暗流涌动，伊核问题被打回原形，在这种共同的内外交困 之下，两国选择缓和关系，抱团取暖就是很现实的选择。
This time, China is not so good at mediation skills, knows how to take advantage of the situation, looks at the opportunity, cuts into the weakness of the United States in the Middle East, and then makes a difference, which is great. This incident is the first time that China has practiced offensive realism in its foreign work, and has achieved rich results, effectively raising the cost of American rule, shaking the regional order under the rule of the United States, and improving the external situation. The domestic evaluation of this event is also very high, and the benefits and moral benefits are both abundant, eloquently proving the correctness of Milsheimer's theory.